Comments on: Eventually petrol prices will rise… a lot.

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By: Chris Tann

Chris Tann — Wed, 11 Feb 2004 20:24:02 +0000

Yeah, arable area for growing enough sugar and oil bearing crops is a problem. But hey, at least its re-newable! I still need to look at some real numbers. And yes, I am suggesting biodiesel and alcohol from specifically grown crops, not from left overs (mind you, if you extracted the left-over alcohol from spilled beer at a manics party, you’d probably be able to drive your car for a year!)

By: Graeme Sutherland

Graeme Sutherland — Sun, 08 Feb 2004 09:24:43 +0000

Thanks Chris,

But you know, the big issue is not when it runs out, but when demand exceeds supply. That is going to happen much sooner.

And then our government in Aust. and the Eurpoeans are going to have to wean themselves off the tax revenue, or watch their economies end up in the toilet.

Now, with biodiesel — how much used vegetable oil is lying araound? Do we ever get enough to make a big difference? I can’t imagine that growing crops specifically to make biodiesel would be that efficient. (Not to mention obesity problems as you start to get paid big $ for used frying fat, and all the passing trucks smell like Hot Chips :-P

By: Chris Tann

Chris Tann — Thu, 05 Feb 2004 22:32:17 +0000

Ahhh, sounds like its time I got off my arse, and actually write down my ideas on saving the planet. Well, not the whole planet really, but a big scheme that would have an overall positive impact.

Why have the “predictions of the exhaustion of oil reserves” lost credibility? Simple – because it didn’t happen. Back in the early seventies, people were prediciting that there would be no oil left by the end of the decade. Didn’t quite pan out like that, did it? So, its no wonder that people now ignore the whole idea, as for all intents and purposes, there is _still_ plenty of oil.

Yes, it is finite, and yes, it will run out. But from an economical standpoint, I doubt very much that major change will start to occur until it really does start to run out. Currently in the US, biodiesel runs about 4x the price of regular diesel, i.e. not too far from equality with the price of diesel in the rest of the world. I’m not sure about Ethanol costs, but once the price of petrol rises to equivalent levels, I think we will start to see a rapid shift in thought.

Of course, don’t forget that the “price” of petrol is already artificially high in Australia and Europe, with the government taking a huge part of the retail price in taxes. The price of petrol in the US has a long way to rise before it even reaches current pump prices in Europe…