Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has an informative article about the world’s finite supply of oil and the strategic implications of Iraq’s oil.
This is the same crew that publish the Doomsday Clock, giving their assessment of nuclear danger. The current time is seven minutes to midnight.
Anyway, a quote from the oil article to get you thinking:
Petroleum reserves are limited. Petroleum is not a renewable resource and production cannot continue to increase indefinitely. A day of reckoning will come sometime in the future. The point at which production can no longer keep up with increasing demand will mean a radical and painful readjustment globally to everyday life.
In spite of that indisputable fact, people behave as if the global petroleum supply is unending. Predictions of the exhaustion of oil reserves seem to have lost all credibility. The public assumes that inexpensive oil will be available essentially forever. The idea that petroleum resources are finite and that petroleum production might peak in the near future seems to have vanished from all discussions of energy policy in Congress, in the press, and even among public interest groups.
Ahhh, sounds like its time I got off my arse, and actually write down my ideas on saving the planet. Well, not the whole planet really, but a big scheme that would have an overall positive impact.
Why have the “predictions of the exhaustion of oil reserves” lost credibility? Simple – because it didn’t happen. Back in the early seventies, people were prediciting that there would be no oil left by the end of the decade. Didn’t quite pan out like that, did it? So, its no wonder that people now ignore the whole idea, as for all intents and purposes, there is _still_ plenty of oil.
Yes, it is finite, and yes, it will run out. But from an economical standpoint, I doubt very much that major change will start to occur until it really does start to run out. Currently in the US, biodiesel runs about 4x the price of regular diesel, i.e. not too far from equality with the price of diesel in the rest of the world. I’m not sure about Ethanol costs, but once the price of petrol rises to equivalent levels, I think we will start to see a rapid shift in thought.
Of course, don’t forget that the “price” of petrol is already artificially high in Australia and Europe, with the government taking a huge part of the retail price in taxes. The price of petrol in the US has a long way to rise before it even reaches current pump prices in Europe…
Thanks Chris,
But you know, the big issue is not when it runs out, but when demand exceeds supply. That is going to happen much sooner.
And then our government in Aust. and the Eurpoeans are going to have to wean themselves off the tax revenue, or watch their economies end up in the toilet.
Now, with biodiesel — how much used vegetable oil is lying araound? Do we ever get enough to make a big difference? I can’t imagine that growing crops specifically to make biodiesel would be that efficient. (Not to mention obesity problems as you start to get paid big $ for used frying fat, and all the passing trucks smell like Hot Chips :-P
Yeah, arable area for growing enough sugar and oil bearing crops is a problem. But hey, at least its re-newable! I still need to look at some real numbers. And yes, I am suggesting biodiesel and alcohol from specifically grown crops, not from left overs (mind you, if you extracted the left-over alcohol from spilled beer at a manics party, you’d probably be able to drive your car for a year!)
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